MR OBI IN PDP'S DEFEAT OF 2023

MR OBI IN PDP'S DEFEAT OF 2023

                            By

                Nurudeen Dauda 

                23rd February, 2025

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To start with, Mr Peter Obi's camp main point of "argument" in the PDP before he left for Labour Party was the "issue" of "zoning" and or "rotational" presidency in the party. It is apt to state that there is a clear "clause" on "zoning" and or rotational presidency in the PDP's constitution. It was on that, that Mr Obi's camp made a "strong" case for zoning in the PDP's presidential ticket for 2023 general elections to be zoned to the southern part of the country.  They argued that the provision of the party's constitution is clear and in line with the principles of "justice", equity , and "fairness".

Mr Obi's camp felt very strongly that the 2023 PDP's presidential ticket especially after the 8 years of a northern president should ordinarily be the turn of the southern part of the country.  Mr Obi's camp further made a strong case for micro-zoning the party's ticket to south - east geo-political zone in view of the fact that it is the only zone in the south yet to produce a president since the return to democracy in 1999.

Similarly, Mr Obi's camp argued that their clamour is based on equity, justice, and fairness in the PDP for an "Igbo" presidency from the south having had a "Yoruba" and a "Niger Deltan" from the south- south. Mr Obi's camp felt that it was not only a southern turn, but also an "Igbo" turn if justice and fairness were to be considered. Mr Obi's camp often argues that the south - east geo-political zone has been very supportive and faithful to the PDP from 1999 to date, but yet to be rewarded for its loyalty.

However, Mr Obi's camp having foresaw that their very strong case for not only a southern presidency, but also an "Igbo" presidency based on equity, justice, and fairness to the south-east geo-political zone which has remained faithful to the PDP since its formation would not be considered left the party in anger to pursue what they believed was equitable, fair, and just elsewhere.

From 1999 to 2019 the then ruling PDP had always won elections in the following states landslide: Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Anambra, Edo, Cross River, Rivers, Delta, AkwaIbom, Bayelsa, Plateau,Taraba, and the FCT. In the 2023 elections results, Mr Obi dislodged the PDP and won landslide in : Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, and Anambra states . He also dislodged the PDP and won with good margins in Edo, Cross River, Delta, Plateau, and Nassarawa states and the FCT. Mr Obi did a serious damage to the PDP's votes in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kaduna, states where the PDP won.

In the 2023 results, Mr Obi got 582,454 in Lagos state against the PDP's 75,750 votes. In 2019 results, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 448,015 votes in Lagos. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 649,612 in Kaduna state, but in 2023 PDP got 554,360 while LP got 294, 494 votes. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 356,817 in Benue state while in 2023 where the APC won in presidential elections LP came second with 308,722 against the PDP's 130,081votes. In 2019 the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 548, 665 in Plateau state, but in 2023 LP won the elections with 466,272 against the APC's second position of 307,195 and the PDP's third position of 243,808.

Mr Obi of LP gave the PDP a deadlier blow in the 2023 general elections than the rest. The PDP as the "main" opposition party in 2019 had Atiku-Obi ticket where it polled 11.2m votes while the then incumbent President Buhari of the APC polled 15.1m votes. In 2023 Mr Abubakar of the PDP polled 6.9m votes, Mr Obi of the LP polled 6.1m votes, and Engr. Kwankwaso of the NNPP polled 1.4m votes. The three major candidates of the three major opposition parties in 2023 polled 14.5m votes while President Tinubu of the governing APC polled 8.7m votes. 

In my view, for our dear country to have political stability though unwritten in our constitution there is a need for rotational leadership between the north and the south. Some northerners often argue from the north's voting strength for power retention continually in the north while the south often argues for power shift from being the economic "powerhouse" of the country, for sense of belonging and in the interest of the unity of the country.

Permit me to correct a "misconception" by some people about the concept of "majority" rule in democracy . The true meaning of the concept is not about "one's" ethnic or religious or regional "majority" in the polity , but it is about the ability of a candidate in a democratic system to convince the "majority" of the electorate to vote for him in an election based on his "manifesto" or and or "programmes" irrespective of his background. Democracy presupposes leaders to be elected based on their political "ideologies" or "manifestos", "policies" and or "programmes" and not their "religions" or "regions" and or "ethnic" groups.

The cardinal objective of democracy is to better the lots of the people through dividends of democracy. In our country practical reality shows that one's well being is not necessary Better Off under someone from his "ethnic" or "regional" and or "religion". Out of our 65 years of independence northerners had 48 years of reign in power with 11 personalities while southerners had 17 years with 5 personalities yet the north has the highest poverty, unemployment, Out- of School -Children , maternal mortality, infant mortality, and illiteracy rates.

The politics of north vs south zoning and or rotational presidency had partly greatly affected the re-election of president Jonathan in 2015 . There were massive revolts by Atiku, Saraki, Tambuwal , 7 serving PDP governors and some serving senators/ Reps members among other on zoning against president Jonathan in 2015 general elections. 

However, the major camps in the PDP must have by now learned some bitter lessons the hard ways. It was obvious that pre-election disunity among them which was principally on zoning did more harm than good to them. Mr Abubakar's camp had earlier on argued that the the issue of zoning should wait until power returned to the party. They further argued that the fastest road to PDP's return to power in 2023 was to field a northern candidate. On the other hand, Mr Obi's camp felt otherwise and left the party. It is now left to be seen between now and 2027 whether Mr Obi's camp issue in the PDP will be addressed and brought back to the party or not. 

We really need a strong and united opposition party that will always keep the ruling party on its toes in order to prevent abuse of power. Strong opposition party in a democratic system always provides an alternative to the ruling party.

In my view, come 2027 for political stability, unity, equity, justice, and fairness the opposition party should present a competent southern candidate to face the ruling party for Nigerian's to decide.