HOW SENATE PRESIDENT ABUBAKAR BUKOLA SAKARI BECOMES THE SENATE PRESIDENT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
HOW SENATE PRESIDENT ABUBAKAR BUKOLA SAKARI BECOMES THE SENATE PRESIDENT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
By:
Nurudeen Dauda
April 23, 2016
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President Buhari might have refused to “influence” who became the Senate president simply because of his “strict adherence” to “rules” and “regulations”; the law permits only the legislators to elect who govern them and not the “Chief executive” (the president) to determine who becomes the senate president. President Buhari might have done that in “good faith” but according to some people the consequences of acting in favour of the “rules” turn out to be not good enough; they added that the president should have acted otherwise. Some people argued that in a “Nascent Democracy like ours you don’t have to observe the rules of the game strictly.
In my understanding, the level of political desperation shown by some “political desperados “unless the president went so “criminal” and even at that he would probably not have stopped the emergence of Saraki giving the high level of desperation he showed and coupled with the good “political atmosphere” created in his favour.
Let’s consider the emergence of Rt. Honourable Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, as the speaker in 2011; Tambuwal was said to have relocated to the National Assembly and hid in his office two days before the inauguration of the 7th National Assembly after he had had from some sources that the then government would arrest him before the election. The then PDP had Mulikat Akande Adiola as its preferred candidate. Tambuwal disguised in “Niger Delta” dressing with a “Bowler hat” while Chief Emeka Ehiedioha wore the “Northern attire” and both escaped whatever plot was arranged against them. The rest is history!
Saraki had revealed in an interview after his election as Senate president how he hid in a “Car” in the National Assembly in order to prevent any plot from the powerful that might scuttle his plan of becoming the Senate President. What made it possible for Senate president Saraki to become President, in my understanding, was the political atmosphere which required some deal. PDP then had 49 senators and the law requires that 51% of the total number of 109 senators will make one the senate president.
The national Leadership of APC conducted a “Straw elections” for Saraki (leader of like minds senators) and Amhed Lawal(leader of Unity forum senators). While Ahmed Lawal won the election, Saraki having made of his mind didn’t even appear in the venue of the election neither participates. President Buhari like I rightly mentioned might have decided not to intervene on the elections of national Assembly leaders due to his well known strict adherence to “laid down rules”. However,Saraki and Dogara understood the “Political Statistics” or “arithmetic” in both the Senate and House of Reps and thereafter keyed in maximally.
Many people have failed to realize that since return to Democracy from 1999 to date there was never a time that, the “opposition” is as strong as now in both the two (2) houses. After 1999 elections PDP had 71 Senators (65%) of the 109 Senators and the oppositions (APP&AD) had 38 senators (34%). In 2003 elections PDP had 76 senators (69.7%) and the oppositions then had 33 senators (30.2%). After 2007 elections PDP had 87 senators (79.8%) and the oppositions (AC, ANPP, APGA etc.) had 22 senators (20.2%). By 2011 elections PDP had 71 senators (65.2%) while the opposition had 38 senators (34.9).
.PDP during its Golding days with an overwhelming majority in both houses needed no “Opposition Alliance” to constitute its leaders in the two (2) chambers of the national assembly.PDP had effective control of its members then so much so that then If any of its members is willing to obey its decision. The Election of Senate President by law, it requires that the candidate has only 56 Senators (which means 51% of 109 senators) in order to emerge as the senate president. The APC’s members in the national assembly are not united but the PDP members as the opposition was (and is still) highly united.
The opposition in the Senate has 49 Senators (45.4%) out of the 109 Senators (although 108 at the time of the elections due to the death of Senator Ahmed Zanna from Borno state). APC was left with 59 Senators (54.6 %) of the 108 Senators standing. However, Saraki emergence was because out of the 59 APC’s Senators seven (7) of them; namely, Ali Mohammed Ndume; Sani Ahmed Yerima; Danjuma Goje; Dino Melaye among others aligned with him. Saraki having allegedly secured a deal with the opposition PDP, they brought their block votes of 49 Senators to him which made it 56 Senators (51%) just the requirement of the law for one to be the Senate President. What a master stroke!
The APC was left with 51 senators (47.7%) as “loyal Senators”. Although, the elections proper didn’t take place, in my analysis, had the elections proper took place while all the loyal APC’s Senators were rightly seated in the “Red Chambers”, “all things being equal” Saraki would still have won. It is worth noting that, 87% of the Saraki support base is of the PDP while the remaining 13% of his support base is of the “Rebel APC’s Senators”.
However, in my modest opinion, Senate president Saraki just as speaker Dogara did after he became the speaker should have made some “concession” by appointing the people in the APC’s list that was sent to him as “principal officers”. The Saraki group should not have played a “zero sum game”; they should have made some “concession” so as to strike a balance or a “political equilibrium”.
On the other hand, Speaker Dogara has done that already by appointing all the APC’s preferred candidates as “principal officers”. Perhaps failure to make some “concession” by the Saraki group led to the present trial at CCT. Only time will tell whether he is guilty as charge or not.
In my view, what made the emergence of Sakaki as Senate President possible were: (1) the inability of APC to accept zoning as a Political reality of our country not as PDP’s invention which is certainly not; (2) the Strengths of the opposition in the senate which had never been seen or witnessed since return to Democracy (1999-2015); (3)lack of political party ideology; (4)the neutral role played by the presidency; (5)the unprecedented level of desperation shown by the actors in the game; (6) lack of party supremacy;(6) and perhaps the 2019 political calculation.