EL-RUFA'I IN TINUBU'S EMERGENCE: A PERSPECTIVE
EL-RUFA'I IN TINUBU'S EMERGENCE: A PERSPECTIVE
By:
Nurudeen Dauda
9th January, 2025
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To start with, no doubt presidents Buhari and Tinubu were the arrowheads of the historic North vs South West geo-political zone alliance, but former governor Mal. Nasir Ahmad El-rufa'i CON and his "like minds"were the "brokers" of the " historic deal". Mal. El-rufa'i and or any other person would not have singlehandedly led to the emergence of president Tinubu, but El-rufa'i's role in his emergence, in my observation, goes beyond his emergence as the APC's flag bearer and or the politics of the electioneering campaign ahead of 2023 general elections.
There is no gain saying the fact that El-rufa'i and president Tinubu for a long time far ahead of the 2022 APC's presidential primary elections were not on the same political page, but it is apt to state that politics is about "calculation", "alignment" and "realignment" of forces ahead of any electioneering period.
However, in the North vs South West geo-political zone alliance thought an unwritten "deal" there was the understanding that after the eight years of president Buhari the south would have its turn. Among the then northern governors, El-rufa'i was an arrowhead for the insistence on the fulfillment of the unwritten power shift agreement to the south after president Buhari's two terms.
The removal of comrade Adams Oshiomole as the APC's National Chairman led to the appointment of governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe state as the acting National Chairman. Governor Buni's tenure in the APC witnessed the continuation of high wire politics around the unwritten alliance "deal" with the south and who controls the soul of the party ahead of the 2023 general elections. There were the allegations that governor Buni who was the then acting National Chairman was positioning himself as the presidential or vice presidential candidate and or being used to clear the ground for some politicians. There was the allegations of Buni- Emefiele and vice versa ticket or Buni - Uzodinma and vice versa ticket and or President Jonathan's ticket.
Governor Buni's tenure as the APC's acting National Chairman was extended and re-extended . There was the allegation of scheming for up to the convention time. Opposition for Buni's over stay as the acting chair was mounted by some politicians. There was the accusations of him having double jobs/payments as a governor and as a National party chairman.
Some politicians kept alerting the APC about the danger of Buni's chairmanship citing the APC's narrow escape on the court judgement over who signed the Ondo state APC's governorship election form submitted to INEC. The issue of being an acting National chairman and at the time a seating governor was then still being contested against . At a time when some politicians were still arguing that the APC could go to the convention with the acting National chairman El-rufa'i was among the politicians and governors who insisted on having APC's National convention for "substantive" National chairman against retaining governor Buni as the acting National chairman.
At a point in time the hard earned historic North vs South West geo-political zone alliance was about to be broken down by the then Villa cabal who benefited from its by contributing little or nothing towards its actualization. Had the Villa cabal succeed in having president Buhari endorsed a northern presidential candidate the North vs South West political alliance might have collapsed which would have consequently led to the loss of power by the APC.
El- rufa'i was among those who played significant role in disarming the then Villa cabal from bulldozing president Buhari to endorse a northern presidential candidate. After the emergence of former vice president Atiku as the main opposition PDP's flag bearer the Villa cabal made up of their minds to get president Buhari endorsed their preferred northern presidential candidate. El- rufa'i was the arrowhead among the 14 APC northern governors who summoned the immediate meeting of the then northern APC governors.
The signed resolutions of the then 12 of the 14 APC's northern governors to shift power to the south was leaked to media. The then Governor Yahya Bello of Kogi state who was one of the APC's northern presidential candidate had a media quarrel with governor El-rufa'i over the then northern governors stand on shifting power to the south in 2023. It was alleged that governor Bello worked out of the northern governors Meeting and referred El-rufa'i as a self -acclaimed northern governors leader.
Former governor Badaru Abubakar who was also a northern presidential candidate of the APC in 2022 primary elections had in one of his interviews revealed that El-rufa'i's was encouraged to join the presidential race especially after the main opposition PDP's convention fielded a northern candidate, but resisted all entreaties. Some politicians including some northern governors were not sure of victory facing the opposition PDP with a southern presidential candidate.
El-rufa'i was among the northern politicians and governors who openly stood for power shift to the south against the wish of some Villa cabal who had endorsed a northern APC presidential candidate but could not get their way. It was alleged that the cabal decided to work against the APC's southern presidential candidate through the alleged fuel scarcity and currency redesign policy.
El-rufa'i was among the three APC governors who sued and won against the federal government over its currency redesign policy. He was also among the politicians who confronted the Villa cabal from one media house to another. His famous BBC Hausa interview was twisted when the interviewer told him that northern elders had decided to vote for a northern presidential candidate. El-rufa'i in the said interview argued that they as the northern governors were the elders of the north and had decided to support a southern presidential candidate.
There were many instances of politicians installing a government, but were sidelined. El- rufa'i was alleged to be consumed by the high wire politics played by those in the corridor of power soon after president Tinubu's victory in 2023 which was in connection with the 2027 and or 2031 election permutations. Between 2025 to 2027 there is still a time to align and realign. Politics is a very complex game! It is left to be seen whether El-rufa'i would be integrated back to APC or would join forces with others opposition politicians for alignment and realignment ahead of 2027 general elections.
In my thought, for our dear country to have political stability though unwritten there is a need for rotational leadership between the North and the South. In 2015 the politics of North vs South rotation partly affected president Jonathan. The main opposition PDP largely lost the 2023 elections due to its inability to manage power shift politics which led Mr Peter Obi left the party and governor Wike's faction weakened the opposition PDP from within.
Permit me to correct a "misconception" about the concept of "majority" rule in democracy . The true meaning of the concept is not about "ones" ethnic or religious or regional "majority", but it is about the ability of a candidate to convince the "majority"of the electorate to vote for him based on his manifestos and or programmes irrespective of his background. An ideal democracy presupposes that a politician from a minority ethnic group or region and or religion will constitute a majority in a democratic contest if he or she has the ability to win majority vote casts in an election. Democracy presupposes leaders to be elected based on their political ideologies or manifestos and or programmes and not their religion or region and or ethnic group.
May God bless Nigeria!