RE: 2019: ODDS FAVOUR TAMBUWAL, SARAKI AND ATIKU

RE: 2019: ODDS FAVOUR TAMBUWAL, SARAKI AND ATIKU
                              By:
                Nurudeen Dauda
               August 28, 2018
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Permit me to refer to Dr. Doyin Okupe's article with the above-named caption published in the Daily Trust of August 28,  2018, on Page 42. Dr.Okupe was the former Presidential Adviser on Public Affairs to President Jonathan .

In the said article Dr Okupe said :" If Saraki emerges on the platform of the Middlebelt, all he needs to do to weaken Buhari’s northern stronghold is to gather support from Southeast, Southsouth and Southwest, since it is very clear that Buhari will lose all the Middlebelt states including Kaduna."

To begin with, I want to believe that, many readers are not too clear about Dr.Okupe's definition of Middle-belt. Dr. Okupe did not state why president Buhari will lose in the middle-belt. In my view, it amounts to a sweeping statement for someone to conclude that a particular candidate will lose in a particular zone without facts and figures.

However, if Dr. Okupe's definition of middlebelt is North-Central Nigeria, he then should have told us why president Buhari who won 4 states in 2015 out of the 6 states in the zone will now lose its completely including Kaduna state which is under the North -West geo-political zone.

As far as I know, the movement called “Middle-Belt” was championed by the late Joseph Tarka of Benue state among others. He lived between, 1932-1980; the movement which did not see the light of day, started sometimes in 1955. It is important to note that, our constitution neither creates Middle-belt nor the six geo-political zones.

In is clear that, the South-West geo-political zone had essentially determined the 2015 general elections' winner. However, I am one of the believers that, the North -Central geo-political zone ( which comprises of Kwara, Niger, Kogi, Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau states) will most likely be the zone to determine who will win the 2019 general elections.

So, I quite agree that,  North Central Nigeria, in view of the issue of herdsmen -farmers clashes which is unfortunately being politicized by desperate politicians is going to be the battle ground come 2019.

In my observation, the APC's presidential elections results come 2019 in the North -West, and East plus the South-West geo-political zones is not likely going to be different from its 2015 Presidential elections results with president Buhari's candidacy.

On the other hand, even though the circumstances of 2015 now are different but all things being equal, South-South and South -East geo-political zones will likely continue to be PDP's strongholds in view of the numbers of governors and members of National Assembly of the PDP from the South -South and South -East geo-political zones.

South-South and South East will be hard to crack against the PDP just as the Noth-West, North East and South -West will also be hard to crack against the APC. Winning North Central by PDP will largely be determined by its presidential candidate. On the other hand, the handling of the issue of herdsmen -farmers clashes by the Buhari administration will also determine his victory in the zone.

May God bless Nigeria!

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