THE NIGER REPUBLIC LOGJAM
THE NIGER REPUBLIC LOGJAM
By:
Nurudeen Dauda
23rd August, 2023
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To start with, any observer who does not look at "issues" through "ethnic" or "regional" or "political" lenses would know that the issue in Niger Republic is not between Nigeria and Niger Republic nor between President Tibunu and Niger Republic.The issue is between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) a sub- regional organization of fifteen member countries and the Niger Republic coupits.
In my thought, the best way to "save" the situation in Niger is by using "diplomacy" either track one (1) "diplomacy" or track two (2) "diplomacy", but certainly not the use of force. It is doable as we saw how the ECOWAS in 2016 solved the Gambian political "stalemate" between the then president Yahya Jammeh and the now president Adama Barrow. Let us exhaut all avenues for "dialogue" in order to avoid war. However, there are so many conspiracy theories out there on the Niger coup.
There is a conspiracy theory put forward by Abdulrazaq Hamzat an Executive Director at the Foundation for Peace Professionals which I paraphrased thus: "The coup in Niger Republic is influenced by Russia in order to put Nigeria at its mercy . Russia is the highest supplier of gas to Europe, but its war in Ukraine cut down European dependence on its energy supply. The Russian- Ukrainian war makes the European countries seek for gas suppliers outside Russia.
It is on this note that Nigeria as one of the countries with huge gas reserve sees the opportunity to stop its procrastination and goes ahead with its long awaited Trans-Sahara Gas Project (TSGP). In June 2022, Nigeria signed an agreement with Algeria to fast track the trans Sahara gas pipeline to connect to existing global gas network. The project was first initiated 40 years ago.
The pipeline will start from Warri of Niger Delta region and run north through Niger Republic to Hassi R'Mel in Algeria. In Hassi, Algeria, the pipeline will connect to the existing Trans-Mediterranean, Maghreb–Europe, Medgaz and Galsi pipelines.The pipeline will be built by partnership between the NNPC and Sonatrach. It will also include the Republic of Niger. Initially, NNPC and Sonatrach would hold a total of 90% of the shares, while Niger would hold 10%.
The Russian gas company Gazprom, Indian GAIL, France's Total S.A, Italy's Eni SpA and Royal Dutch Shell have all once expressed interest in participating in the project, but the Energy ministers of Algeria and Nigeria have said that there will be no need to bring international oil companies into the project" and "if the need for partnership in the project arises, not every partner will be welcome on board on the project. Nigeria and Algeria wants to take full ownership of the $13billion worth of project, which would cut Russia's main source of revenue in Europe.
Russia saw this as a major issue for its business which may not be unconnected with the situation in Niger Republic. This was further compounded with the bombing of Russia's owned Nord stream 1 and 2 pipelines allegedly by United States in September 2022, shortly after Nigeria made financial commitment to the trans Sahara pipeline.
Nigeria also understood this issue and so is US, European Union, including France. If the coup plotters are not removed in Niger Republic, Russia will not only slow down the project, they may outrightly kill the project, or force themselves into the deal, all of which doesn't favor Nigeria".
However, some people will want us to believe that President Tibunu who is a southerner wants to "fight" our northern brothers in Niger Republic as if he has ever taken any "decision"on the situation In Niger unilaterally without convening an ECOWAS meeting. One wonders whether as the chairman of ECOWAS he can over rule the remaining member nations or at least the 11 member nations under the civilian administrations.
Sadly to note, to most commentators on the issue in Niger the Juntas have not done anything wrong as no pressure is being mounted on them whatsoever. Some people do not want the ECOWAS to act even by way of sanctions.
As a student of international relation I know too very well that Nigeria through the ECOWAS has always risen to occasions in the West African sub-region . ECOWAS was established in 1975, but the first major security challenge it faced was the Liberian crisis of 1990s. President Samuel Doe, the master Sergeant first came to power through coup d'etat, but he later contested and won election. President Doe was dethroned and killed by the factional rebel leaders of Prince Johnson and Charles Taylor.
In the 1990s Nigeria through the ECOWAS under President Babangida went to Liberia and restored order. General Abacha restored democracy in Sierra Leone in 1998 after Major Jonny Paul Koroma overthrew a democratically elected government of Alhaji Ahmad Tejan Kabbah. Nigeria at various times has been to Guinea-Bissau (1998), Côte d’Ivoire (2003), and Mali (2014) etc. It has equally played a global role from the 1960s Congo peace operation to several others.
In my observation, the ECOWAS and its members who are under democratic governance may not likely take the issue of military coups "lightly" any "longer" especially as it is increasingly becoming a bush fire in the sub-region. In Mali there were military coups in August, 2020 and May, 2021. In Burkina Faso there were military coups of January, 2022 and October, 2022 and in Guinea Bissau there was a military coup in February, 2022.
It is being argued by some observers that the failure of ECOWAS to take "strict" measures on military coups in the sub-region will further embolden coupists across countries in the sub-region. The remaining 11 member nations are very much aware of argument.
My strong message to ECOWAS is that it should and must avoid military actions on the issue at hand by searching for other options. The best way to prevent military coup is to prioritize "good governance" in all its member nations. Although "democracy" is not a "perfect" system of government, but even for just the freedom of expression that it offers one can conclude that it is better than the military government.
May God bless Nigeria!