ON POLITICAL ALIGNMENT AND REALIGNMENT AHEAD OF 2019 ELECTIONS: EXPECT MORE DEFECTIONS

ON POLITICAL ALIGNMENT AND REALIGNMENT AHEAD OF 2019 ELECTIONS:         EXPECT MORE DEFECTIONS

                               By: 
Nurudeen Dauda
             December 6, 2017
nurudeendauda24@gmail.com nurudeendauda24@yahoo.com
nurudeendauda.blogspot.com

In my observation, virtually all Nigerian politicians irrespective of their political parties are "political party platform seekers". In my humble prediction, we are likely to see more "defections" throughout the country from the major political parties all in search of political party platforms ahead of 2019 general elections.                 

Expect governorship aspirants across the states whose governors have full grip of their "party structures" and who could neither "reconcile" with them nor "drop" their ambitions to move to another party soon. Moreover, expect "serving" or "aspirants" for Senate, House of Representatives, and State House of Assembly members who could neither "reconcile" with their governors nor "drop" their ambitions to move to another political party soon.

In my prediction, this is not only going to be restricted to the ruling All Progressives Congress(APC), it will likely affect even the opposition Peoples Democratic Party.                       In my understanding of Nigerian politics, governors are extremely powerful, especially; when it comes to primary elections. Get me right! I mean primary elections not general elections. One needs a platform through primary elections before contesting for general elections.

With the exception of the 1999 primary election under Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which was, essentially; determined by the "Powerful Generals" from 2003 to date all primary elections in the then ruling party were decided by the Governors. This is more so, because of their control for state resources and party delegates. By the constitutions of our major political parties, governors are the party leaders of their respective political parties in their states.   

Although, it is very rare for a serving governor to leave the party for his opponent , however, it is not impossible. A serving governor could leave the party for his senator or any other politician in a situation whereby he rode on the senator's political structure/financial support and if having assumed power he is unable to takeover the structure from him or form his new structure, so, to that extent he has to leave the party for the senator or the politician.

We had the case of late Governor Mala Kachalla of Borno state who rode on the party structure of Senator Ali Madu Sheriff (SAS). He was, essentially; financed by him after becoming the governor instead of to systematically takeover the party structure from him or form his new structure he did not do that until in 2003, when Kachalla wanted to contest for re- election under ANPP. It became clear that Ali Modu Sheriff would be the ANPP candidate for governor instead of Kachalla. Angered by the position, Kachalla left the ANPP and joined the Alliance for Democracy (AD). He was however defeated by Ali Modu Sheriff.

We also had another case in Zamfara state, where Governor Mamuda Aliyu Shinkafi (MAS) who was then the only Deputy Governor that succeeded his Governor in 2007. He rode on the "structure" of Senator Sani Ahmad Yarima, but soon after they parted ways to the extent that Governor Mamuda had to leave the party for Senator Yarima who later fought him to standstill.

In my view, if we must get it right, we must not leave political party finance to state governors. All stakeholders should or must be involved in party finance or forget about it. We must device a means where all and sundry will contribute to its finance through regular payment of membership dues. Moreover, political parties in the Western World generate a lot of revenue through businesses . In our own case, we rely on governments resources. 

Governors will continue to be very powerful and relevant as far as primary elections are concerned as long as  party activities are being financed by them. Our political parties "finance model" needed much to be desired. In Nigeria, political parties are single handedly being financed by the governors from the state resources. This must be changed , in my view, if we must get it right. The governors, as it is, pay rent for party offices, salaries of its staff and all other activities.  He who pays the piper dictates the tune!

Our political parties lack political ideology which is necessary for party supremacy and loyalty. Our political parties are financially dependent on state governors or few moneybags. Our political parties are generally weak. Intra party conflict is ultimately unhealthy to our polity. We must strive towards formation of political parties based on ideology. If our political parties are formed based on political Ideology , the issue of defection from one party to the other would not have arisen.

In my view, for we to reduce intra- party disputes among our politicians, we should and or must resort to the formation of political parties based on ideology. Moreover, we must not leave political party finance to state governors or moneybags politicians. All party members irrespective of their economic status should and or must contribute to party finance. Political parties in Nigeria should borrow a leaf from the financing model of political parties in  advanced democracies as a means of ensuring their independence and supremacy. 

May God bless Nigeria!

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