LESSONS FROM 2023 PRESIDENTIAL POLLS

LESSONS FROM 2023 PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
                                By:
                 Nurudeen Dauda
                May 28, 2023
nurudeendauda24@yahoo.com
nurudeendauda24@gmail.com
nurudeendauda.blogspot.com

To start with, In electoral politics, strategy essentially wins election. A political party with a superior strategy often wins election. In Nigeria ethno-religious sentiments rather than "policy issues" play a greater role in determining electoral victory which is why politicians will always deploy all 'weapons" in their political Arsenal to gain power. In my thought, the following reasons are some of the factors responsible for the "outcome" of the 2023 presidencial elections.

DIVIDED OPPOSITION PARTIES: In 2013, the then opposition parties of CPC, ACN, ANPP, and a faction of APGA merged and formed the APC for the elections of 2015.The nPDP, a faction of five (5) seating governors, former VP, former governors ,seating Speaker of the House of Representatives, several seating senators, and Reps members later joint the APC and fielded a united candidate for the 2015 elections who defeated a seating president for the first time in the history of Nigerian politics. The then opposition CPC, ACN, ANPP, and APGA fielded different candidates in the 2011 presidential elections in their different platforms and were defeated by the then ruling PDP.

In 2019, the PDP the then main opposition party had Atiku-Obi joint ticket which got eleven point two million (11.2m) votes while the then incumbent president Buhari of the APC got fifteen point one million (15.1m) votes. However, in the just concluded 2023 elections, the former VP, Alh. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP got 6.9million votes, Mr Obi of the LP got 6.1million votes, and Dr Kwankwaso of the NNPP got 1.4million votes. The three major opposition parties got 14.5million votes while Alh. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the governing APC got 8.7million votes. Both Mr Obi and Dr Kwankwaso were in the PDP ahead of the 2023 general elections. Dr Kwankwaso left the party in March 24, 2022 two months to the party's presidential primaries on the issue of leadership crisis in the North-West Zone. He alleged that despite micro zoning the position of the North-West Vice Chairman of the party to Kano state they were denied freehand to decide. Mr Obi, on the other hand,  left the party on the 24th of May, 2022 less than three days to the party's presidential primaries.

MR PETER OBI's EFFECT: From 1999 to 2019 the then ruling PDP had always won elections in the following states landslide: Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Anambra, Edo, Cross River, Rivers, Delta, AkwaIbom, Bayelsa, Plateau,Taraba, and the FCT. In the 2023 elections results, Mr Obi dislodged the PDP and won landslide in : Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, and Anambra states . He also dislodged the PDP and won with good margins in Edo, Cross River, Delta, Plateau, and Nassarawa states and the FCT. Mr Obi did a serious damage to the PDP's votes in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa,Taraba, Adamawa, and Kaduna, states where the PDP won.

In the 2023 results, Mr Obi got 582,454 in Lagos state against the PDP's 75,750 votes. In 2019 results, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 448,015 votes in Lagos. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 649,612 in Kaduna state, but in 2023 PDP got 554,360 while LP got 294,494 votes. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 356,817 in Benue state while in 2023 where the APC won in presidential elections LP came second with 308,722 against the PDP's 130,081votes. In 2019 the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 548,665 in Plateau state, but in 2023 LP won the elections with 466,272 against the APC's second position of 307,195 and the PDP's third position of 243,808.

G-5 GOVERNORS REBELLION : The opposition PDP and its Five (5) of the fourteen (14) governors went into the elections sharply divided. Governor Ortom of Benue state declared for Mr Obi openly while Governors Wike of Rivers, Makinde of Oyo, Ugwuaniyi of Egunu, and Ikpeazu of Abia remained silent upto the elections day. The Atiku-Obi joint ticket in 2019 without a seating governor in Oyo state got 365,229 votes , but the PDP with a seating governor in 2023 got 182,977 votes. In 2019, the Atiku-Obi joint ticket got 473,971 votes in Rivers state, but in 2023 it came third with 88,468 votes. However, apart from the G-5 governors factor, in 2019, Dr Kwankwaso was in the PDP and the then Atiku-Obi joint ticket came second in Kano state with 391,593 votes, but in 2023 the PDP came third with 131,716 votes behind the NNPP's first position with 997,279 votes and the APC's second position of 517,341 votes.

UNITY OF RULING PARTY: At a time when the "main" opposition party lost two of its presidencial aspirants very close to their presidential primaries, the ruling party got seven aspirants stepped down for one of its presidential candidates on the day of their primaries. At a time when the ruling party's governors who are the key stakeholders in the polity resolved the issue of zoning on their presidential ticket ,the "main" opposition party was sharply divided on the issue. At a time when the "main" opposition party failed to resolve its Post- presidential primaries "disagreement" which led to the emergence of G-5 governors, the 21 state governors of the ruling party unanimously supported and campaigned for their presidential candidate. The governors of the governing APC deployed all their political Arsenal to support, campaign, and delivered their presidential candidate.

The electoral "umpire" had done its part by conducting the elections and announcing the results. The winner has emerged, rejoiced and moved on to set up his government. However, both the main oppositions PDP and LP who came "second" and "third" according to the results announced by INEC claimed victory in the election. Interestingly, both candidates and their parties have taken the civilized paths by going to court to prove their various allegations of malpractices against the winner. This is right thing to do!

In my thought, one of the many bitter lessons that the opposition parties should learn is that their pre-election disunity has done more harm than good to them although we have observed some level of "alliances" and "cooperation" among the oppositions post-election. The court has asked the three parties in court to harmonize their "petitions" against the winner.

As we await for the court verdict, the INEC's declared Alh. Bola Ahmed Tinubu should be sworn in comes May 29, 2023 just in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2019 when there were court cases against the INEC's declared winners.

May God bless Nigeria!

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